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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/14 11:05

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Corn is flat to 1 cent lower at midday, soybeans are flat to 1 cent lower, 
and wheat is 1 to 3 cents higher. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 2. The dollar index is 4 
higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with crude up 
$0.60. Livestock trade is firmer led by cattle. Precious metals are mixed with 
gold up $5.00.


   Corn trade is flat to a penny lower in quiet trade at midday with sideways 
action continuing with little fresh news. Ethanol margins are little changed 
with ethanol futures remaining flat to slightly higher. Corn basis remains 
steady to slightly softer, with little change in recent days but more open 
weather should help movement along with March basis contracts coming due. 
Argentina has gained competitiveness vs. the U.S. in recent days with the 
export wire remaining quiet. On the March contract support is the lower 
Bollinger Band and the fresh lows at $3.75, then the $3.71 4-month low, with 
resistance at the $3.94 recent 2 1/2 month high with the 20-day just above the 
market at $3.83 which we remain just below.


   Soybean trade is flat to a penny lower at midday with trade still working to 
push through $9.00 with trade looking for the 10th-higher close in a row on the 
front month. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is flat to 10 points lower. 
South America continues to make good progress with weather and harvest moving 
forward with little change on the horizon. The Brazilian real remains very 
cheap as well hurting U.S. export competitiveness near term but has gained this 
morning with trade still awaiting a trend change. New crop soybeans will need 
to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive ahead of planting in the US as 
well with some gains this week. The March soybean chart support is the 20-day 
moving average at $8.93, with resistance $9.00 nearby.


   Wheat trade is 1 to 3 cents higher with trade remaining choppy with little 
fresh news to move any of the classes of wheat. Weather threats for the plains 
remain limited near term domestically with limited short term moisture across 
most of the plains. Kansas City is at a 80-cent discount to Chicago, regaining 
a nickel the last few days while Minneapolis is back to an 18 cent discount as 
well. World values remain mostly elevated with Chicago wheat expensive, and 
Kansas City wheat on the low end with Black Sea and euro origin still leading 
to the Mediterranean Sea buyers. The March Kansas City chart support the lower 
Bollinger Band at $4.55, with resistance the 20-day at $4.78. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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