DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/05 10:56

   Corn, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday; Soybeans Lower

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures 
are 10 to 12 cents lower; wheat futures are 8 to 12 cents higher. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures 
are 10 to 12 cents lower; wheat futures are 8 to 12 cents higher. The U.S. 
stock market is weaker with the DOW down 250 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 
150 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with 
crude up 1.45 and natural gas is up .07. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious 
metals are weaker with gold down 12.00.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with choppy action continuing 
as the stronger dollar and harvest pressure limit the early buying seen 
overnight but buying continued to show up on weakness. Short-term forecasts 
have the center of the belt drier with warmer-than-normal temps over the next 
couple of weeks to keep harvest moving along into midmonth. The export wire 
will need to show more life soon with nothing in recent days and river issues 
remaining notable for shipping. Ethanol margins will likely chop along with 
softer driving demand and refinery disruptions to keep upside limited for now. 
The weekly ethanol report showed production rising by 34,000 barrels per day 
(bpd), with stocks 1.006 million barrels lower. Basis will be watched to see 
how quickly we go to harvest footing everywhere and how aggressively the west 
will bid for corn in the deficit areas into early harvest with notable strength 
already while intra-month spreads remain off the highs as shipping issues will 
limit the export market. On the December chart, trade is just above the 20-day 
moving average at $6.79 with the recent high at $6.95 above that with the lower 
Bollinger Band at $6.63 as further support.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 10 to 12 cents lower at midday with trade seeing selling 
return after the firmer start to the week with demand and export concerns and 
harvest pressure still at the forefront. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 lower and oil 
is 25 to 35 points higher. Early planting is underway in South America with 
late demand picking up ahead of the U.S. export window. The dollar started the 
week fading to hold with Brazil in better shape to start than Argentina early 
on with varied short-term rain potential. Basis will continue to shift toward 
harvest footing with trade watching to see how quickly export shipments pick up 
into the end of the month with some further near-term basis pressure expected 
into October along with intramonth spread weakness adding carry in recent days 
along with significant cash carry in some river areas. The daily export wire 
was quiet again after the small sale to start the week. On the November soybean 
chart, trade has the 20-day moving average at $14.27 as resistance well above 
the market, with the lower Bollinger band at $13.50 as support.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 8 to 12 cents higher at midday with trade fading a little 
more off the recent highs with another test of $10.09 on KC this morning before 
fading again, with buying support showing up again on early weakness. The 
Plains look dry short term, but enough recent rains fell in some areas to keep 
planting moving forward short term. MATIF wheat remains near the upper end of 
the range with choppy action to start the week working just off the highs as 
well. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day moving average at $9.51, 
and the fresh high at $10.09 as resistance, which we tested again Wednesday 
morning.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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