DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/02 11:05
All Grains Lower at Midday
Corn is 4 to 5 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents lower, and wheat is 5
to 7 cents lower.
David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is higher with the Dow 240 points higher. The dollar
index is 8 points higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are
firmer with crude up $0.40. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals
are firmer with gold up $10.
Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower with profit taking ahead of the long
weekend with the forecast in flux. The forecast has limited short-term issues
for now with warmth expected to continue into early July with a drier tinge for
much of the belt as we go into pollination. Ethanol margins are stable today
with gasoline demand showing further softness. Weekly export sales remain soft
at 361,100 metric tons old, 262,700 of new, but China bought 202,000 metric
tons of new crop. On the September contract, support is the 20-day at 3.34 with
resistance the $3.53 3/4 highs.
Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with China making purchases
for new crop but light profit taking showing ahead of the weekend. Meal is
narrowly mixed, and oil 5 to 15 points lower. The real is up slightly against
the dollar, and at the midpoint of the recent range. Crush margins have seen
little change in recent days. Weather should remain mostly a non-issue for
soybeans for the moment. Weekly export sales were disappointing at 241,700
metric tons old, 841,700 of new, 143,000 metric tons of old meal, 13,000 of
new, and 2,800 of oil with 126,000 metric tons sold to China for new crop on
the daily wire. The August soybean chart resistance is the $8.96 fresh high,
with support the upper Bollinger Band at $8.81.
Wheat is 3 to 7 cents lower with choppy trade into a long harvest weekend.
Little change has been seen in European and Russian weather with harvest
expanding with most dryness in the harvest areas. The ruble remains in the
recent range vs. the dollar with U.S. export competitiveness slipping the last
couple of days. Kansas City is at a 58-cent discount to Chicago on the August,
while Minneapolis is back to a 20 cent premium. Weekly export sales softened a
bit to 414,300 metric tons of old crop, and 75,000 of new crop. The September
Kansas City chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $4.22, and resistance
the 20-day at $4.47.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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